Lions 2013: five things we learned from the second Test against Australia

Lions must break free from straitjacket in Test series decider; Warren Gatland needs Sam Warburton to be fit for Sydney

1 Play it again Sam?

The Test turned when Sam Warburton left the field 14 minutes from the end having led an impregnable defence. His chances of playing on Saturday appear slim, leaving Warren Gatland with a twofold dilemma: who to replace him on the openside and who takes over as captain.

Justin Tipuric is the natural replacement for Warburton as a No7, but Sean O'Brien would be more effective if the gameplan is as restricted as it was in Melbourne. With Paul O'Connell injured, Brian O'Driscoll is the likely alternative captain, but he has had a muted series, standing on the periphery at outside-centre.

The lock Alun Wyn Jones would be an option, but he suffered a knee injury early in the game and will be monitored this week. The Lions need Warburton to make an unexpectedly rapid recovery.

Lions wing Tommy Bowe and Australia's Joe Tomane battle in Melbourne. Using Bowe and George North as kick-chasers failed as a tactic. Photograph: David Davies/PA

2 Fit to drop

Three players are set to return from injury even if they are not fully fit: Jamie Roberts, Mike Phillips and Alex Corbisiero. With Saturday in Sydney marking the end of the tour, Gatland can afford to risk them breaking down. The Lions have missed the thrust of Roberts in midfield in both Tests: for all the creativity of Jonathan Davies and O'Driscoll, they have rarely found themselves on the front foot with the Lions too often playing behind the gainline.

Roberts has started sprinting again after tearing a hamstring the weekjust before the series started and, unless he suffers a reaction in training, will be risked. Phillips was hindered by a knee injury in the first Test and held back for Saturday if the series had not been decided.

The Lions rebuffed a suggestion that the Welsh scrum-half had been disciplined for breaking a curfew after the opening Test and, like Corbisiero, his replacement in Melbourne struggled.

3 Unsettled set piece

The Lions were expected before the start of the series to have the advantage in the set pieces, but the scrum nearly cost them in Brisbane and did so at the Etihad Stadium. Australia targeted Mako Vunipola on Saturday and the first two penalties they kicked came after the touch judge Chris Pollock had intervened.

The Lions did have a few strong drives after getting the hit, but they lost a heel against the head and, while Richard Hibbard added ballast when he replaced Tom Youngs at hooker, it was his throw two minutes from time that was taken by Liam Gill in front of Tom Croft. It was their first throw of the night that the Lions lost, but much of their possession was scrappy.

It was a surprise that they went long in the lineout at the end when the option of the front and a driving maul, to either put them in position for a drop goal or sucker a penalty out of the Wallabies, held more potential.

4 Wide boys

The Lions have become narrower as the tour has gone on, a reflection of the low standard of opposition they encountered initially, injuries and the tension of a Test series. Jonathan Sexton made a few half-breaks in Melbourne but, apart from the opening minutes, the Lions rarely threatened in the Australian 22 and did not threaten the line in the final 70 minutes.

The ball did not go through the hands and the wings Tommy Bowe and George North were used as chasers of kicks, a questionable tactic against a team as good in the air as the Wallabies.

The Lions came on tour with only one recognised 12, Roberts, and two specialist outside-halves. They have played a lot through nine in the two Tests rather than 10, a consequence in part of slow ball and a lack of gainline success, but they will need to break out of the straitjacket in Sydney.

5 Fatigue

The season in the British Isles started 10 months ago and while some players, most notably Dan Lydiate, had an extended rest period, most are feeling the effects of a gruelling campaign. The Lions have faded in the final quarter of both Tests with the Wallabies scoring 13 points in that period to the tourists' six.

The Lions started strongly on Saturday, armed with attacking intent, but soon retreated after their pressure yielded a mere penalty.

Australia may not have many game-changers on their bench, but they are at the peak of their fitness with their year at the halfway point.

The Lions will be on holiday after Saturday and will have one final heave. Their cause will be helped if the Wallabies are without their captain James Horwill in Sydney – he has led what is, with some notable exceptions, an ordinary team expertly, getting everything out of his players.

Lions have firepower to roar back at Australia in third Test decider

Defeat by such a small margin is harder to take, but Warren Gatland's men know they have the beating of the Wallabies

Jamie Roberts will make a difference as the Lions' defensive captain and as a ball-carrier if he recovers from injury in time. Photograph: Mark Kolbe/Getty Images

The prevailing theory seems to be that it is advantage Australia going into the final Test after their victory in another thrilling match in Melbourne, but I do not accept that.

Both matches have gone down to the wire. Australia could, and should, have won the first Test, and the Lions were as close to victory on Saturday. Sydney will be a 50-50 game and, with injured players coming back, we have the firepower to win.

Alex Corbisiero is needed to shore up a scrum which ultimately cost us, the lineout will need to be looked at and Jamie Roberts, well though the other guys have played, will make a difference in the Lions midfield, both as the defensive captain and as a ball-carrier.

Australia could be without their captain, James Horwill, who faces a disciplinary hearing. He would be a big loss, but so would Sam Warburton, whose departure with a hamstring injury 14 minutes from time on Saturday was a turning point.

I thought Sam was magnificent, forcing one turnover after another in a non-stop performance. He is so quick to get back on his feet that he makes several tackles in one movement.

He is a world-class player and it amazes me to think that even a month ago he was being written off. I rate Australia's openside Michael Hooper, but he is still learning his trade and was taught a lesson by Sam, who is right up there with Richie McCaw and David Pocock.

I hope he is fit for Saturday, but if he has to sit it out the Lions have Sean O'Brien and Justin Tipuric, two different but effective flankers. Sam would leave a huge hole, but when adversity strikes you have to get on with it.

It was good to see a referee penalise the attacking side at the breakdown, a fair reward for the pressure Sam and other forwards exerted, isolating the ball-carrier and forcing him to hold on.

Had Sam stayed on, I think the Lions would have won. It was only when he went off that Australia started to put phases together, but even then we looked like holding out. It took a brilliant switch in play by Will Genia to turn the game and take the series to the third Test.

I thought the Lions got it right tactically, even if they did not have enough possession in the second half. They forced Australia to run the ball from deep and if the set pieces cost us at times, the mobility of the pack brought reward at the breakdown.

Two early scrum penalties cost us because Australia this time had an accurate goal-kicker and it reminded me of the first Test in South Africa in 2009. Again we had gone for mobility at forward and the Springboks targeted the scrum. As was the case then, the Lions responded.

It all made for a fascinating Test match and I expect a third tense, closely fought encounter on Saturday. It will be another game that swings on one or two plays or a kick at goal: Leigh Halfpenny hit the bar with his first kick in Melbourne and was just short with his last. It was so far out it would have been a miracle penalty.

Leigh will pick himself up. Defeat is always harder to take when it is by such a small margin, but the Lions know they have the beating of the Wallabies. I do not think there has been a momentum shift because there is so little between the teams.

One area that was especially close and fascinating in Melbourne was the aerial battle, something that is becoming an important part of rugby union because if you can steal the ball it is the best turnover possession you can have with the defence disorganised.

Australia have some top-rate catchers in the air, led by Israel Folau, but George North, Halfpenny and Tommy Bowe were their equals and you could only admire their skill and bravery.

The Lions will welcome their break in Noosa. It will give them the opportunity to relax in each other's company before getting back to work. They will be frustrated at being within a few minutes of winning the series, but they will not dwell on it.

They look in good shape and they have what it takes to win the third Test. It is sure to be another belter, a real battle between north and south that shows the game of union in all its glory. Bring it on.

Lions captain Sam Warburton faces anxious wait over fitness for decider

• Hamstrung captain could find out Sydney fate on Sunday
• Mako Vunipola awaits possible citing for off-the-ball offence

The Lions captain Sam Warburton is helped off the field towards the end of the second Test against Australia. Photograph: David Davies/PA

Sam Warburton will find out on Sunday whether he will be available for the deciding Test in Sydney after the first hamstring injury of the Lions captain's career forced him off the field with 14 minutes to go.

Warburton is to undergo a scan and will remain in Melbourne before joining the squad at the Queensland surfers' resort of Noosa.

Warburton led by example as the Lions looked like sealing the series with a big defensive effort and the boot of Leigh Halfpenny, but as soon as he went off, the game changed. The Wallabies started to put phases together and the Lions' line was breached four minutes from the end. Halfpenny then missed a long-range penalty .

While the Lions wait on Warburton, they expect to have the prop Alex Corbisiero, the centre Jamie Roberts and the scrum-half Mike Phillips fit again for the Sydney showdown as they seek their first series victory in 16 years.

"The dream is still alive," Warburton said. "We have to pick ourselves back up immediately, as they did after last Saturday and realise we have every chance of winning the series. We were very close today but I know from experience with Wales that Australians keep going until the 81st minute.

"This was always going to be a series that was decided by a whisker because two very good sides are evenly matched and we will be flying into the weekend. I hope to be involved but will not know until the injury has settled down on Monday.

" I have never had a hamstring injury before so I am not too sure what will happen. I desperately want to be involved because we have every chance of winning the series and it will be a huge occasion."

The Lions led for 64 minutes of the match, conceding the vital try with four to go. They still had the chance to win the game and the series, when Halfpenny, who had missed two kicks in 29 attempts on the tour, had a penalty just inside his own half. His kick was well short and was caught by the Australia scrum-half Will Genia, who kicked it dead to level the series.

"I have seen Leigh kick them from that distance, but he did not connect with it properly," said the Lions head coach, Warren Gatland. "It shows how close the series is that both Tests have been decided by missed kicks. We were very close, but we lost the territorial battle.

"Leigh will be disappointed, but he has nothing to reproach himself for. He has done incredibly well this tour and I do not think there has been a momentum swing to Australia. Both games have been very close and it will be the same again in Sydney when we will have players back to strengthen our options.

"Sam was brilliant at the breakdown and we had a number of turnovers. That was a difference between the sides and he was a big loss. We had to reshuffle when he came off because Dan Lydiate had run himself into the ground and it changed the momentum of the game."

Corbisiero's return from a hamstring strain will be timely if his replacement, Mako Vunipola, who had a mixed evening, struggling in the scrum but excellent in the loose, is cited for an off-the-ball challenge on the Australia centre Adam Ashley-Cooper.

Tour de France 2013: Jan Bakelants surprise winner of second stage

Jan Bakelants won a demanding second stage of the Tour de France to take the yellow jersey from Marcel Kittel.

The Radioshack Leopard rider was the sole survivor of a six-man attack, which broke away with less than seven kilometres of the 156km stage from Bastia remaining.

The peloton, led by Peter Sagan, were pedalling furiously down the final stretch, but even as Bakelants appeared to be all out of energy, he dug deep to take the yellow jersey. Bakelants crossed the line with a one-second advantage over a pelaton led by Peter Sagan and Michal Kwiatkowski, which included veteran British rider David Millar. Millar last wore yellow on his Tour debut back in 2000.

This challenging second stage of the Tour had seen plenty of excitement in the mountains earlier in the afternoon, but then came to life for a second time when the riders approached the final categorised climb of the day, a short but steep ramp 12 kilometres from the finish.

Former Team Sky man Jan Flecha attacked, quickly joined by Europcar's Cyril Gautier.

But Team Sky had been setting the pace at the front of the peloton for most of the stage and Chris Froome accelerated away to set off after Gautier.

The attack lasted only three kilometres before Froome allowed the peloton to catch him, but Gautier's proved to be the third doomed attack of the day from a French Europcar rider.

It was another Frenchman, birthday boy Sylvain Chavanel who led six riders out on one final attack, briefly enjoying the lead before handing over responsibility.

There was further drama four kilometres from the end when a small dog ran into the road, almost colliding with the breakaway and then standing in front of the approaching peloton before leaping out of the way in the nick of time.

Five of the six escapees were doomed, but Bakelants kicked again with two kilometres to go and clung on for a victory which puts him in yellow thanks to Kittel crossing the line in the grupetto more than 17 minutes back, with the stragglers also including Cavendish and his team-mate Tony Martin - a surprise starter today after he suffered a catalogue of nasty injuries in yesterday's dramatic crash.

Cavendish had, like Kittel, fallen back on the approach to the category two Col de Vizzanova, adding to a frustrating start for the Manxman after his dreams of wearing yellow were ended amid yesterday's chaos in Bastia.